Background The communication of injury risk in rugby and other sports is underdeveloped and parents, children and coaches need to be better informed about risk. Method A Poisson distribution was used ...

On November 12, 2025, three gravitational-wave detectors on two continents caught a ripple in spacetime. This event did not ...

NASA is preparing to use the Artemis II crewed lunar flyby as a live proving ground for a suite of forecasting models ...

KellyBench tested eight frontier AI models on the 2023-24 Premier League season with a 100K GBP bankroll and Kelly sizing. Every model lost money. Here is why fluent LLMs still fail at calibrated ...

This valuable study presents a plastic recurrent spiking network model that spontaneously generates repeating neuronal sequences under unstructured inputs. The authors provide solid evidence that, ...

Native Americans have been playing with dice in games of chance for more than 12,000 years, according to a new paper ...

Recently, a cheerful 100-year-old message in a bottle was found on the south-west coast of Australia. In it, a world war one ...

If a Yes contract is trading at $0.58, that means: The market believes there is a 58% chance the event happens. Prediction markets think in probabilities, not odds. Converting Prices Into Odds (Sports ...

Abstract: This paper proposes a robust Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (R-PMBM) filter immune to the unknown detection probability. In a majority of multi-object scenarios, the prior knowledge of ...

Context: There was no evidence such a bet existed on the Polymarket website. The rumor came from an apparent quip Adam ...

Think certain investors are geniuses? Buffett argues they're just lucky monkeys. Discover why the Oracle of Omaha argues that ...