Is a recession on the horizon? This video analyzes the yield curve and its historical accuracy in predicting economic ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

As of early March 2025, investors—and consumers—have once again begun to feel skittish about the possibility of an impending ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

The disconnect between hard data (which capture measurable performance of the economy and are backward-looking) and soft data (which are typically based on sentiment and expectations and are often ...

The yield curve will reveal the bond market's confidence in how the U.S. is handling monetary policy Financial markets are weighing the risk that U.S. interest rates now will be based on political ...

Economists often use imperfect historical information to form opinions about the economy’s direction. We often don’t know we’re in a recession until it’s well underway—typically, the National Bureau ...

The 10-year yield is often used as a stand-in for mortgage rates and also shows how investors feel about the economy’s future ...