It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

The FDA’s new draft guidance on Bayesian methodology signals a shift toward more flexible, data-driven clinical trial designs, enabling sponsors to use prior data and adaptive approaches to improve ...

When our brains don't have a good intuition for reasoning with numbers, explicit probabilistic thinking can lead to improved decision-making. A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...